an Informa business - Consultancy and Information in Agribusiness

Subscribers Access
Enviar Forgetten password

Publications

REPORTS

COMAG - AGRICULTURAL MARKET CONSULTANCY

The dynamic of the agricultural market, as well as the volatility of commodities prices, have made information strategic and essential for those involved in Brazilian agribusiness. This growing demand for knowledge led Informa Economics FNP, a company with over 20 years' experience in the Brazilian farming sector, to produce the Agricultural Market Consultancy (COMAG).

COMAG takes a snapshot of the activity and translates it in an analytical and informative manner for readers, giving them a detailed overview of the market for the main crops in Brazil - soy, corn/sorghum, cotton, and sugarcane, with in-depth analysis of the events in the sector and expectations for the future for each production chain. It is an essential support tool for any business interested in understanding and predicting the dynamic of the main agricultural commodities in Brazil and the world.

Crops dealt with:

  • Soy and other oilseeds
  • Corn and other winter cereals
  • Cotton
  • Sugarcane

Content:

Introduction

  • Executive summary: brief summary including the main news on each crop
  • Overview: Holistic vision of the Brazilian economy and agribusiness
  • Economic indicators: brief analysis of Brazil's macro-economic scenario.

Crops

  • Global supply and demand figures: main events in the key countries for each crop and the impact on international trade and market operations.
  • Harvest forecasts and follow-up: estimates for current harvest production with periodical updating on crop progress and conditions throughout Brazil.
  • Brazilian supply and demand figures: monthly forecast on supply and demand for each productive chain and their sub-products.
  • Market overview; analysis of spot and future prices and our expectations for the dynamic on these values over the coming months.
  • Production costs: estimates and consolidated prices for costs and profitability in the main producer regions, updated three times a year.

Statistical appendix

  • Tables of statistics for all the information analyzed.

LAND MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT

Description:

The Land Report is two-monthly and provides quotes on approximately 1,000 different types of land (location versus use), distributed in 133 homogenous micro-regions throughout Brazil.

The most representative prices for each region in deals that have been done are surveyed and updated, so allowing a national comparison, irrespective of the payment form used.

Content:

  • Context and outlook
  • Economy
  • Legislation
  • Highest appreciation (R$/ha and %) - short and long term
  • Highest depreciation (R$/ha and %) - short and long term
  • Analysis by activity type
  • Analysis by State
  • Charts and tables of price evolution throughout Brazil

LAND LEASING REPORT

Description:

The Land Leasing Report is six-monthly and presents over 120 different quotes (locations versus use), using the same geographical division as the Land Report.

The analysis provides readers with an important decision-making tool for their business, comparing land price gains in the most sought-after regions compared with the cost of leasing.

Content:

  • Description of leasing and rural partners
  • Land leasing market analysis
  • Tables with updated land lease prices throughout Brazil
  • Tables of product price evolution (soy, beef cattle, sugarcane) indexes

BRAZILIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY

Brazil's dairy sector has been growing a mere 1% per year from 1996 to 2004. Since then, soaring milk prices in the local and international markets coupled with technology adoption have made great inroads and raw milk production has increased 10% in the past three years (2004-2007). The country now is at a turning point and could become a major player in the international trade of dairy products.

Brazilian exports of dairy products - primarily powdered milk - have increased 140 % in the past five years (2002-2007). With little tradition in the international trade of such products, the country is facing a situation in which market focus is also being placed on export markets. Brazil currently exports dairy products to some 103 countries, mainly as powdered milk, but also growing quantities of cheeses.

Key questions to be answered in this study

  • Can Brazil become a major player in international trade of dairy products?
  • How do the economics of milk production compare with main competitors, such as New Zealand? Which has the current and long-term cost advantage?
  • Will the dairy industry continue to consolidate or has this process peaked?
  • What are the major drivers on the supply and demand side for greater milk demand in the local market?
  • What are the competitive advantages of Brazilian dairy farmers over major competing countries? Are they sustainable?
  • Who are the major exporters, where are their markets, and at what price level?
  • What will be driving increased milk supply in Brazil? New areas, technology or scales of operation?
  • What will be the impact of increasing land prices on the profitability of the dairy sector compared to other farming activities?
  • What will be the impact of recent legislation on milk quality standards?
  • Will there be more overseas acquisitions by Brazilian companies?

BRAZILIAN LIVESTOCK AND MEAT INDUSTRY

Brazil's agribusiness sector - including livestock and meat - now accounts for around 25% of the total GDP, equivalent to US$ 378 billion in 2007. Furthermore, the agribusiness sector represents 37% of all jobs and 36% of total exports. Since 2005, Brazil is the world's largest meat exporter with an estimated 34 % of total meat trade in 2007. Most of this is represented by beef and poultry, yet pork meat exports have also increased in the past 7 years. Understanding that 72 % of meat produced in locally consumed, exports of meats have grown 14 % per year over the past five years (just beef, 19 %) while production has increased at a rate of 4 % per year. From a macro point of view, Brazil's position as largest meat exporter has not changed, however, looking at company maneuvers and strategies, one can say that considerable supply adjustments have taken place and further adjustments are expected in the near future.

On a micro basis, major and numerous changes have motivated Informa Economics FNP to update their Meat Report to reflect the current supply and demand situation for the local and export markets. In a span of 2 years, the Brazilian livestock and meat sector has shown significant changes. Consolidation is rapidly taking place with some 30 company acquisitions in the past 18 months. Most buyers are major players, however, a few newcomers are making their appearance such as Arantes group and Sadia. Diversification is also a key strategy among the major players with traditional beef companies making inroads into the dairy sector and poultry and hog slaughter.

Key questions to be answered in this study

  • What is and what will be the impact of soaring prices for corn, soybean and other meals and inputs of production costs for poultry and hogs?
  • What is the likely impact of increasing fertilizer prices for beef farmers using pastures?
  • Where will be the new production centres for beef, poultry and hog? Will all activities move to the Central West?
  • What advancements have been made on traceability programs for beef, pork and poultry?
  • Major players in the meat industry - what are their strategic objectives and plans?
  • What changes are taking place in the value chains for the major meat markets in Brazil?
  • What is the level of mobility in the livestock sector and will livestock activities gain or lose ground to biofuel activities?
  • What are the possible effects of increased ethanol production on the livestock sector?
  • What are the scenarios for supply forecast per meat type in Brazil? Which will be the winners and losers?
  • What will be the impact on supply and demand for soybean meal and corn?
  • Where are the Brazilian competencies in beef, pork or poultry?
  • What are the input opportunities? Feed, animal health or artificial insemination?
  • What will be the Brazilian consumers' reaction to continued higher meat prices?
  • What impact will improved traceability programs have on international trade?
  • What measures are the livestock and meat processors taking to minimize deforestation of the Amazon?
  • What measures are the state and federal governments taking to fight forest devastation?

BRAZILIAN BIODIESEL SECTOR

The global market for biodiesel has been growing rapidly and production levels have increased from 0.9 billion litres in 2000 to 7.9 billion litres in 2007. Most of the demand growth is in the European Union, but Brazil as well as neighbouring Argentina have been investing in an integrated production base to meet long-term export opportunities. Unlike developed countries, the Brazilian biodiesel program has been aimed mainly at creating new jobs in rural areas. In contrast, the United States has been driven by the need to reduce dependency on fossil fuel imports, while EU policy is aimed at achieving long-term environmental sustainability under the Kyoto Protocol targets

Key questions to be answered in this study

  • Feedstocks - the advantages and disadvantages?
  • Jatropha, castor beans and crambe - are these viable feedstock alternatives?
  • How competitive are soybean oils and tallow on a global basis?
  • What are Brazil's export opportunities and eventual barriers?
  • The outlook for the major biodiesel players - integration or consolidation?
  • What is the position of the Brazilian government on incentives - and will it change?
  • Petrobras - what is its role in the biodiesel industry?
  • Alternative technologies - which are being explored in Brazil?
  • What factors enhance Brazil's position in biodiesel production?
  • Low oil prices - what are the implications for the biodiesel industry?
  • Opportunities for investment in the short and long-term?

PROCESSED FRUIT & JUICE OPPORTINITIES IN BRASIL

Brazil's exports of processed fruits were US$2.2 billion in 2008, however, when excluding citrus - FCOJ - this value falls to a meagre US$184 million. Although non-citrus export revenues have been increasing 14% each year since 2004, Brazil is perceived as a second tier player, behind such countries as Colombia, Ecuador and India. Furthermore, a good proportion - 32% - of processed fruit exports are common lines including grape, apple and pineapple. Just over two thirds of total processed fruit exports can be considered tropical, semitropical or super fruit lines. The super fruits category in Brazil is currently processing some 10 super fruits. Among them are a�a�, acerola, cupuassu and camu camu. The greater proportion of these processed fruits is consumed in the domestic market, however, exports have begun to soar over the past five years as a result of successful marketing campaigns in USA and Europe. The Brazilian fruit processing industry sold an estimated US$3.8 billion in 2008. Excluding the citrus industry, revenue amounted to US$1.7 billion, of which 93% referred to fruit juices and pulp. Only 7% of the total market refers to other processed fruits which include fruit pastes, canned fruits, jams and jellies, and dried fruits.

Key questions to be answered in this study

  • Are there sufficient and sustainable amounts of processed fruits to market?
  • What processed super fruits are currently being exported?
  • What companies are the major exporters?
  • Who are the major importing companies?
  • Where are the fruits, fruit juices and pulps being produced in Brazil?
  • What are the prevailing prices of exported processed fruit lines?
  • Are there investment opportunities in these markets?
  • What the general trends in the processed fruit segment in Brazil?
  • What are the major barriers?

BRAZILIAN POULTRY SECTOR

The Brazilian meat sector is classified as one of the most dynamic in the world. Currently, Brazil is the second largest meat producer in the world and number one in international trade. While Brazil's reputation is well known in beef, poultry exports now lead in terms of meat protein exports from Brazil. Brazil's competitive edge lies in the relatively low production costs of important raw materials - corn and soybean meal - and a well developed integrated farming system. Furthermore, the population consumes a large portion - some 70 percent - of poultry meats, a critical factor when considering the development of a domestic industry. Nurturing this meat demand on the domestic side is the fact that Brazil's disposable income level has been increasing and consequently, the country has shown signs of significant meat protein demand growth.

This feature has shielded domestic producers from some of the impact of the global recession. At the industry level, major changes have taken place in the past 12 to 18 months. First, a major consolidation process has taken place. Another important factor is the consolidation of meat production and marketing. Five years back, the meat industry was mainly divided into beef and poultry/pork processors. This situation has drastically changed and traditional chicken (and pork) operations are now avidly processing and marketing beef products. In a similar move, some of the international beef players also have diversified their operations to include pork and poultry meats. The implications of these trends are greater industry concentration and a lesser number of meat traders for export markets.

This report, ready for immediate distribution, was developed to identify some of these marketchanges, yet it will also develop for you a solid data base of knowledge of Brazilian production, consumption and exports. The intent of this report is to provide a concise picture of the Brazilian poultry segment - from farm level through to exports of meat products - which will enable the reader to take strategic decisions on the attractiveness of the marketplace. Some basic and general trends are covered, yet the purpose of the report is to describe and quantify the poultry segment in Brazil. With a better understanding of the sector, investors and other interested parties can develop "go/ no go" decisions on this dynamic sector.

SUGAR AND ETHANOL IN BRAZIL

Brazil is the world's leading sugarcane producer. The country is considered to have the world's first sustainable biofuels economy. Together, Brazil and the United States lead the industrial world in global ethanol production, accounting together for 70% of the world's production

In 2007/08, about 44% of this came from sugar sales and 54% from ethanol sales, with the remaining 2% from bioelectricity sold in the domestic market. Sugar sales were split 36% - 64% between the domestic and foreign markets respectively, while ethanol sales were dominated by the domestic market, which generated 85% of revenues against 15% for exports.

Despite the decrease in the Brazilians sugar export in 2007, the irregularity in sugar production in India maintains the expectation upwards to the Brazilian sugar on the international market. Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia might continue increasing imports of Brazilian product in the next year.

The estimates to the 2008/09 harvest are around 559 million tonnes of sugarcane, a growth of 13% when compared to the last crop. To process such production, will be added around 30 new mills over the crop season, in addition to the existing 390 mills that are operational.

This rapid growth in the number of mills, combined with the upgrading of port, pipeline, road and rail infrastructure will mean that Brazil should be able to meet export demand and supply the expanding domestic and Latin American market for fuel ethanol.

Key questions to be answered in this study

  • What is the outlook for flex-fuel vehicle market in Brazil?
  • Is sugar cane expansion a threat to the Amazon rain forest?
  • What is the outlook for the Brazilian sugar cane industry?
  • What is bioelectricity and what is the potential in Brazil?
  • What are the key drivers and success factors in the sugar and ethanol sector?
  • How competitive is Brazil in the sugar and ethanol export market?
  • How big is the Brazilian domestic ethanol market?
  • What are the key obstacles concerning the logistics infrastructure?
  • Which are the best regions for the sugar cane crop regarding climate, soil and logistcs?
  • Will sugar cane production move into new regions of Brazil, such as the Mid-West?
  • What is the outlook for the land price evolution of Brazil for sugar cane areas?
  • Are Brazilian sub-products important to its industry?
About US | Consultancy | Business Intelligence | Conferences | Publications | Brazilian Meat Monitor | Reports | Land | Grains | Livestock | Sugar and Ethanol | Contacts

Informa Economics FNP

Rua Bela Cintra, 967, 11º. Andar - CEP: 01415-000 São Paulo/SP - Brasil
Tel.: + 55 11 4504-1414 / + 55 11 3017-6800 Fax: + 55 11 4504-1411